Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 2.430335 2.912028 3.451858 4.099831 4.854544 5.703818 6.729780
2025-11-30 1.693462 2.290152 3.031522 4.012876 5.269312 6.814713 8.848897
2025-12-07 1.205457 1.808593 2.626368 3.800364 5.423494 7.566471 10.583112
2025-12-14 0.936842 1.537406 2.414688 3.762785 5.748467 8.525131 12.649412
2025-12-21 0.752618 1.338910 2.254134 3.747079 6.069919 9.481268 14.783092
2025-12-28 0.663889 1.266354 2.261797 3.969610 6.750970 11.004282 17.863887
2026-01-04 0.572736 1.168124 2.206524 4.074617 7.249131 12.287957 20.693927
2026-01-11 0.509294 1.104756 2.195827 4.244630 7.861094 13.794108 23.990616
2026-01-18 0.434831 1.004092 2.100266 4.248444 8.185222 14.855816 26.656170
2026-01-25 0.356719 0.878726 1.936410 4.100931 8.220025 15.428005 28.549235
2026-02-01 0.292690 0.768645 1.782433 3.946301 8.216268 15.921589 30.334155
2026-02-08 0.252946 0.704139 1.709555 3.937907 8.478896 16.898170 33.024783
2026-02-15 0.219177 0.647378 1.645988 3.944131 8.779101 17.985554 36.034900
2026-02-22 0.187176 0.587486 1.565273 3.902466 8.978855 18.904168 38.814850
2026-03-01 0.151395 0.508130 1.424718 3.707514 8.838474 19.157656 40.368882
2026-03-08 0.130137 0.463728 1.360111 3.674465 9.033584 20.077602 43.258790
2026-03-15 0.112946 0.426691 1.307108 3.660211 9.265863 21.087724 46.395816
2026-03-22 0.107534 0.425254 1.347365 3.878494 10.040728 23.267024 52.008685
2026-03-29 0.098113 0.408181 1.342089 3.981456 10.560894 24.954134 56.740559
2026-04-05 0.091785 0.400082 1.360629 4.148029 11.246139 27.041641 62.431902
2026-04-12 0.081076 0.373196 1.319810 4.151777 11.541591 28.309766 66.500317
2026-04-19 0.067839 0.332500 1.229488 4.007278 11.457659 28.736090 68.814722
2026-04-26 0.056484 0.295182 1.141746 3.855819 11.337345 29.067068 70.940782